TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF MALARIA IN ABA, ABIA STATE: USING AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODELS TO FORECAST FUTURE INCIDENCE

Abstract

The study sought to assess the trends of Malaria incidence in Aba Metropolis and forecast future incidence. A retrospective comparative study design was employed using secondary data from Abia State University Teaching Hospital Aba from January 2014 to December 2020. Trend of malaria prevalence was analysed and compared by years and months. The Quadratic model was used for the forecasting of the half year incidence of Malaria while Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (1, 1, 2) was used for forecasting monthly malaria incidence for the years 2021 and 2022 in Aba Metropolis. For the general pattern, July recorded the highest number of cases whereas January recorded the lowest cases in each year. Also, 2014 was the best performing year since it recorded the lowest number of malaria cases (10,336). The projected malaria case for the first half year of 2022 is expected to be 61,371.8, while the second half year is expected to be 77,842.0. This model is recommended to the metropolitan health directorate and researchers who want to monitor the malaria reported cases in the metropolis and other parts of the world. It is suggested that measures should be put in place to curb malaria incidence during the period of the year when high incidence were recorded.